Calder May 30

Cerveza · May 30, 2003

Race 1
Tough call here. I like the way TANGI was running at Tampa, but not sure she can translate that form over here. QUINCY LIGHT will be the probable fave, but she doesn't seem to run fast enough in the late stages to wear down the filly I expect to be on the lead, NEW YORK GOLD.
The bet: $15 WP #4

Race 2
Looking for a longshot here as I think this race is wide open. HEAR ME CLEARLY exits an allowance race and although Toribio jumps ship, she picks up Garcia which I feel is an upgrade. KINGS FANCY should be a nice price - much better than if Mott still had her - and Vivian is strong with first on turf. Another that should make some noise is ALMOST APROM QUEEN. I really like her last race.
The bet: $10 WPS #7 $5 exacta 3/2,7,9

Race 3
I love Danny Hurtak first after a claim so I have to key GENTLE BREEZE LOLA in here.
The bet: $10 exacta 1/2,4

Race 4
TRAIL RIDER would be my pick if not for my concern about the speed bias. So, I have to go with the girl I expect to set the fractions, CHIKARA. Would love to get 5-1.
The bet: $15 WP #2

Race 5
DANCE OF JOY really improved when she hit the grass and I think she's got a great shot today, but I'm going to go with an Irish River filly that will be at much better odds, STORM CAT'S KITTEN.
The bet: $10 WPS #8

Race 6
I can't understand why Wolfson would drop RUNAWAY FROLIC down two classes after her debut effort. It kinda scares me a little. Well, to be honest it scares me right off the horse. I'll be taking a good look at SPANISH SLEW in the post parade - if she looks good, she's the pick.
The bet: $10 exacta box 4/3,7

Race 8
No more bridesmaid for DEBBIE'S GONE. Today is her day.
The bet: $40 W #7

gino · May 30, 2003

Cerveza--RE 6th CRC Wolfson is huge on the double-drop (40+%) however he is not a GREAT debut trainer (9% Calder) however--he is HUGE on second attempt (21% overall--26% CRC) and bear in mind he sends about 80% or better of his runners over at Calder. Marty Wolfson is pretty close percentage-wise--but Milt seems a bit better with the babies. Like I say--2yo fillies toughest creature to handicap--may be putting it in a spot where she's unlikely to be claimed but can learn how to win and pick up a check. Still interested in the #2 here Salvester.

Cerveza · May 30, 2003

Thanks, gino, was unaware of his success on double drop - 40%, that's a good one for my "angles" thread.

gino · May 30, 2003

Cerveza--only thing-that could be a drop from 40 claimers to 20--or from 40K allowance to 20K--so I can't say its just MSW or M-50 down to 12.5. But a 2 class drop-at calder-he is historically about 40%. Bear in mind though-ANYBODY worth a damn would stand to be at least 25% at this angle.

Youre in Holmes Beach? You go to sarasota dog track or bet at home? I actually live in Pinellas-just do a lot of work up in marion county.